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UNCERTAINTY

When a magnitude-8.7 earthquake struck off the shore of Indonesia recently, frightened residents ran to the hills fearing another killer tsunami like the ones in December 2004. Several organizations issued warnings, but no giant waves appeared. The highest waves recorded by Japan's Meteorological Agency measured off the coast of Oman were only 12 inches. Immediately, scientists set out to find out why this quake did not generate waves like the earlier one.

Keiji Doi from Tokyo University's Earthquake Research Center summarized his findings saying the size of a tsunami essentially depends on two factors: the volume of sea water above the site of the quake and the extent of the movement. Doi said the most recent quake occurred in shallower water and impacted a much smaller section of the seabed. Doi explained that his answer was an educated guess based on current data and further studies were planned. He said, "It just shows how difficult it is to predict tsunamis. It's not an exact science; especially right after the fact, when you don't have this kind of data." Dio says there is the likelihood of another big quake along this active faultline, along with the chance of another killer tsunami. He added, "but you can't predict these things."

—www.abcnews.go.com/International, Quake's Movement Behind Lack of Tsunami, March 30, 2005. Illustration by Jim L. Wilson and Jim Sandell.

James 4:13-15 (ESV) "Come now, you who say, 'Today or tomorrow we will go into such and such a town and spend a year there and trade and make a profit'—[14] yet you do not know what tomorrow will bring. What is your life? For you are a mist that appears for a little time and then vanishes. [15] Instead you ought to say, 'If the Lord wills, we will live and do this or that.'"